Paper that identifies new evidence that, because of a new inflation environment, hard times started significantly earlier for households on lower incomes than for the average UK household. Because the costs of essential goods and services have been rising much faster than standard rates of inflation for some time, households on modest incomes have fared far worse than official data suggests. More and more are struggling to achieve a minimum standard of living. Looking forwards, these lower-income households could largely miss out on the fruits of a slow recovery; following a substantial decline in their living standards, they may see little or no improvement during the next decade.